The last 12 months for RIM and the Blackberry brand have been HELL. I trace the free fall back to the day the Torch 9800 was released just over 1 year ago. I call that wake up day. That is the day for me that started RIM on the path that it currently finds itself in, with stock prices in the toilet, media/public perception being eroded and the RIM faithful having their loyalty tested. It’s when the critics and bloggers really started to RIP into RIM. It is the day the public, including fans, started to grow inpatient with RIM.
We all know what happened since, the buggy OS 6 launch, the lackluster 9780 update… the Style… the Playbook without BBM/Email/Calendar, the delayed OS 7 launch etc etc… finishing off with where we are today, with the latest batch of OS 7 phones being on the market for a couple weeks. Today we find RIM is in the middle of a rebuild, yet, the analysts keep calling out that RIM is dying and many blog sites keep perpetuating these stories, furthering the problem of RIM’s image reconstruction.
There is no denying RIM deserved the criticism it got and needed the wake up call, but, I feel that wake up call has been heard and that the valid criticism and analysis has turned into rampant miss information and creative reporting by people who don’t understand the future plans of RIM and how RIM is making the transition for the future. I feel we are past the point of reflecting on why RIM got to this position, it has been beat to death, and it is clear RIM has already started to turn things around.
That is now why I write this piece. I write this piece because… I feel…. things are different now since the OS 7 releases. I feel that RIM is literally half way through turning the corner. I feel that the majority of analysts either do not fully understand the mobile landscape as it stands today, are operating on months old information or have up to date information but don’t understand it. I also feel that there are some out there that know what RIM has in store, know the potential RIM has; however, they want to short the stock price and keep it down in an effort to make money for themselves or those they associate with.
What set me over the top and inspired me to write this opinion piece was the numerous articles that referenced Mr. Misek’s analysis of all things RIM that came out a couple days ago. It was such a brutal and out of touch analysis of RIM’s situation. It made Mr. Misek seem like he hadn’t read any of the new news about RIM over the last 4-6 weeks. The fact that it got so much play all over the internet bothered me. Mr. Misek’s analysis got so many thoughts running through my head that I felt compelled to write this piece… and what I want to write about is
WHY I THINK RIM WILL SUCCEED
This is purely my own opinion and it 100% relies on RIM delivering a solid QNX phone, the Colt as it’s called today. Given a solid Colt……. this is why I feel RIM will RISE.
OS 7 phones were not expected to make record sales
RIM has a loyal following in Canada, Europe and 3rd World countries
RIM still carries cache, tarnished cache, but still cache
Android development will skip a beat
RIM has a vision for implementing services outside the superphone/tablet space that no one else has
RIM just revamped the team
The above 6 points lay the foundation to allow RIM to make their comeback; however, lots of hard work and execution needs to happen with the QNX phone launch to capitalize on these foundations. There are some key areas they need to execute on:
In summary, I believe the combination of the above 5 factors in RIM’s favour and the execution on the above 5 areas will lead RIM into the future and beyond.
There are a great many people out there who have switched to Android/iPhone and want to come back to Blackberry, they just need a good reason, and the Colt has the potential to be that good reason. When putting things in perspective, RIM still has a huge fan base in North America and abroad. This will not go away in the next 12 months, thus giving RIM its window to complete its turnaround.
The critics forget that the public, especially the American public, are very fickle consumers. While it may not be in fashion now to support Blackberry, with a solid QNX Colt, it can still go back to being in fashion, just as it was before. In the end it all comes down to execution. RIM has a window of opportunity here that they are lucky to have: Steve Jobs stepping down at Apple, HP shutting down webOS, Android under siege with lawsuits, this is the time for RIM to bust through with the Colt and take back the industry.
I for one will continue to anxiously await the next leaks of the Colt and all the new products put out by RIM. I have faith that RIM understands its mistakes and is turning things around. The next 12 months should be interesting!
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